Mars One colonies

[forrestcupp]

I know there are some people here who are very interested in colonizing Mars (at least there used to be). Has anyone ever heard of Mars One, based in the Netherlands? They're actually working on sending the first 4 person manned colony to Mars in 2024, with more groups going every two years after that. Crazy stuff. It looks like they've received 200,000 applicants from around the world, and applications are closed for now. They say you may be able to apply down the road for future trips. Their web site has a lot of info.

http://www.mars-one.com/

[markodd]

The expert's opinion on MarsOne is that they're a scam. They did a reddit AMA and it wasn't very good either.

[t0p]

Mars One looks like a variation on the Mars Direct programme first devised by Robert Zubrin and David Baker, which was apparently feasible in the 1990s, so it can only be more (or less?) feasible now. NASA doesn't like it because it doesn't involve a 50-year programme of constructing lunar bases and Earth-orbit stations. NASA doesn't like simple.

[Habitual]

We can't even manage our own planet.

[QIII]

Make a mess, move on.

[Paqman]

Mars One isn't taken very seriously in space circles. They don't have the infrastructure, expertise, or investment to achieve anything near their extremely ambitious plan. They've produced a lot of artist's impressions and Powerpoint presentations, but no hardware. In the meantime they're happy to take money from enthusiastic members of the public. I don't think it's a scam, but I don't think they're being completely honest about their business plan. I suspect the early phases of it (recruit astronauts, produce reality TV show about their training) will occur, but I don't think they've got any serious intention of actually launching anyone into space.

The business model just doesn't stand up to any scrutiny. You can't fund the biggest, longest space operation ever mounted through selling advertising in a reality TV show. They've stated that their projection is similar viewing figures to an Olympic games, but since there's no plan for a return journey your talking about maintaining that level of viewership continuously for several decades (instead of two weeks every four years for an actual Olympics). This is patently nonsense, and I prefer to suspect that they know it is and have no intention of actually doing it. The alternative is to believe that they're complete fools. I think their plan is simply to whip up lots of hype, produce a TV show, claim (quite correctly) that they don't have the money to start launching any real rockets and retire to the Bahamas with their profits.

[forrestcupp]

I haven't read enough about it to really know everything they're planning. But I do know it's a one way trip. I read they're going to be installing greenhouses, and trying to become self sufficient. Does anyone know what they're thinking about water? I don't think a big tank of water would last that long.

[kurja]

Presumably they would extract water ice from the soil. They could also get oxygen and hydrogen from that ofc, I don't know how simple that would be though, they'd need to shift a lot of soil to get sufficient amounts of water.

[bashiergui]

Hadn't heard of it. Sounds completely hair-brained. But that's what they said about Alexander Graham Bell, Ben Franklin, etc.

Don't know if anyone remembers Carl Sagan's Contact. This project has some interesting parallels with that story, namely how the publicity drove some major decisions about the course of the project in the beginning. Of course those decisions led to its demise, and the subsequent successful mission was quiet and out of the spot-light (but never mind that, carry on!) Too bad Carl isn't around to offer an opinion on Mars One.

[ian-weisser]

2022: Six Cargo missions are launched

Two Living Units, two Life Support Systems, and two Supply Units are sent to Mars in 2022. In 2023 all units land on Mars using a Rover signal as a beacon

Let's see...

Launching cargo to Low Earth Orbit costs about $10,000 per kg. Your ship, propellant, landers, and cargo costs $10,000 per kg to just to get off the surface of the Earth. Mostly fuel.
So look for around $2-5m for each cargo kg delivered to Mars. Minimum.
And much more (10x to 100x) for each kg of human. Humans need heat, water, food, air, radiation shielding, exercise, and stimulation to survive the trip. All that life support needs to be shipped with them.

So tens of billions of dollars needed, most to merely purchase the fuel required for their plan. Is that feasible?
No, it's not feasible.

It would be fantasy or a hobby if they were not soliciting donations.
It's a scam because they are soliciting donations.