Originally Posted by
mattlach
Mostly agree.
I don't necessarily think the PC market is in long term decline though.
Sales have slowed throughout the economic downturn, but so have most other durable goods, and I think the all the doom and gloom for PC sales is a little premature.
Mobile ARM based phones and tables are DEFINITELY a larger and faster growing market (by quite a wide margin) but that doesn't mean that the traditional PC is going away, or even going to shrink from a userbase standpoint. I foresee a future PC market that continues to grow, just not as fast as phones and tablets.
In a way it's like how the PC gaming market changed with the advent of more capable consoles. PC gaming continued to grow, but was outpaced by console gaming, and the content gradually changed over time. More and more titles on the PC were ports of original console titles rather than the other way around. (admittedly to the dismay of many seasoned gamers on the PC platform) Does that mean PC gaming is dead? On the contrary, it's alive and has more titles and more powerful hardware than ever. Good PC exclusive titles continue to be released taking advantage of the significantly more powerful PC hardware, and to that we also have a plethora of console ports to distract ourselves with.
On the business side of things, I think there will be a need for full fledged x86-type computing for many decades to come. The percentage of desktops will give away to a percentage of laptops which will give away to a percentage of tablets and phones, but I don't think any of them will go away completely or even shrink in absolute numbers.
As for me? I don't own my own Laptop. I get one through work, otherwise I wouldn't have one. I'm a home-built desktop (and server) guy all the way, and I can't imagine changing my ways. Do I own a smartphone and tablet? Yes I do (LG G2 and Nexus 7 2013) but I mostly use them for little silly things, like vegging on the couch while watching a movie, or in car navigation using Waze. Whenever I have to do any real work, type anything longer than a sentence or (which I rarely have time for anymore) play a game, only a PC will do, and preferably by far my desktop.
I know I'm a rather atypical user, in that I have two desktops (Main rig in my office, plus HTPC connected to my TV in my living room) as well as a server in my basement, a laptop on loan from work and a tablet and smartphone, but not too long ago just owning a PC AT ALL made you an atypical user, and the PC industry still was able to survive with plenty of hardware and software diversity.
PC use will change, no doubt. I just doubt it's going anywhere. Market percentage will (and has) undoubtedly shrink, but absolute market size (both in dollars and in units) will probably grow.
Time will - however - tell.
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