To Ubuntu and Canonical's success. There, I said it.
Ubuntu is NOT Linux for Linux people. If you use or have ever used Debian, Slackware, Gentoo, or if you work out of a terminal, you are NOT Ubuntu's target audience. Ubuntu might work for you, but you don't matter. Kind of how Mac OS-X is not geared towards FreeBSD or PC-BSD users, it's geared towards normal people (but especially hipsters).
Look at the mobile space - it's not BSD vs Linux, it's iOS vs Android. Android is successful not because it's Linux, but because it works (and while it works in part because of Linux, other Linux mobile OSes have come and gone).
This is why CCSM and Synaptic are not included by default. The average user doesn't need them. This is why there's paid apps in the software centre, because the average user associates quality with a cost, and is willing to pay. This is why Unity is the main DE, and not a Windows 95-esque DE like Gnome 2 or XFCE.
And for 'normal' people, ones whose computer using habits are not already shaped by Windows or Gnome 2, or who likely don't even have any computer using habits, who just expect their system to work without fuss, Ubuntu does work.
(for the record, I'm an experienced computer user, Ubuntu also works for those who like keyboard shortcuts, it can do anything any other Linux distro can, it's very efficient for pros as well as newbs, but that's just not the point)
Edit - another way to put it - 100% of existing Linux users =\ 200 million users (Ubuntu goal)
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