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Thread: Linux share at record high.

  1. #31
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by tgalati4 View Post
    Maybe 2010 is the "Linux Year on the Desktop."
    the year of "Linux on the Desktop" will be the same year as "Advertisements for Linux on the Desktop"
    If the only reason you think your software is better is because it's FOSS, you need to write better software

  2. #32
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old Marcus View Post
    I don't know about that, I know plenty of students who use it, and not a single one on Linux.
    haha I just think that it would be a reasonable assumption that the average Linux user uses wiki more than the average Windows user, if only because they're both quite geeky.

  3. #33
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleClicker View Post
    The best source for a neutral data set would be the usage logs from google, but they are not available. However, Wikipedia would be a reasonably representative sample of the entire internet, and their data is available.

    This however needs to be adjusted for UserAgent spoofing. I don't have a reasonable data set for this, but given that more than 80% of the Linux Users I know spoof their UA string, I would guess that 10% would be a good conservative estimate. This would bring the total market share to about 2% all -users.
    Very interesting statistic, that I will add to my pool, but there is a problem:
    I suspect Wikipedia is not used equally much in different regions of the world, is there any breakdown on languages or regions?

    I especially suspect Asian countries to be behind in Linux uptake. The often reported stories about Linux popularity in India and China has no backup in any numbers I can find.

    Asia has almost half of the worlds Internet users.
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  4. #34
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    I have to reassert that, based on my surroundings, the majority of Ubuntu users are people who use it for its simplicity and reliability, not because they're geeks.

    You can't assume just because you don't show it to average users in a way that they would adopt it and you don't see many Linux users that aren't geeks, that most Linux users are geeks. Just as much as I can't say that because I help a lot of average users find Ubuntu that the majority of them are average consumers.

    Outside of solid numbers, all of these arguments are trivial and based on a very near-sighted bias.

    The simple fact is that Canonical has stated several amounts of known users that are over the 10 million mark, Fedora actually tracks users and has over 20 million, and Ubuntu gets a lot more attention than Fedora, so it's safe to assume it has more than 20 million. So, that's at least 40 million, even if all the other distros are just people pretending to use it or develop it while using Ubuntu or Fedora.

    40 million users out of a little over a billion computer users worldwide. That's 4.1 percent.

    So, from the only numbers we can really count on in any degree, we have at least 4.1 percent market share collectively. If there are more Ubuntu users than Fedora users which is likely, and more than a million users of distros other distributions which is also fairly likely since SUSE actually sells their product to consumers, I believe, then it's likely more than 4.1 percent.

    I think people vastly underestimate Linux's marketshare on the desktop, since they really have no other choice. If not everyone's using it, then certainly almost no one's using it.

    Speculations have very little value here. Let's just suffice to say that there ARE users, and there are MANY of them.

    Outside of this, the software is exceptional despite the given user base. Even if we only had a million users, the software is good enough for everyone else. The only thing holding it back is a few niche software providers like Adobe and the fact that no one has a clear presence to point to, even with Ubuntu being sold on DELL's website. We need VISIBILITY. Once we have that, the rest will follow.

    Without it, we'll be playing the numbers game well after Linux gets 50 percent market share. And, to be honest, I hope that the market remains diversified; Even if that means it's only diversified between different package formats and distro features. XD

  5. #35
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by JDShu View Post
    haha I just think that it would be a reasonable assumption that the average Linux user uses wiki more than the average Windows user, if only because they're both quite geeky.
    I would beg to differ. Wikipedia has far more articles on pop culture, than it does on science and technology. And for every view that, "Polywell", "Fractal", or "Richard Stallman" gets, "Harry Potter", "Miley Cyrus" and "Grey's Anatomy" gets hundreds. I see no reason to assume that Linux users, make up a higher percentage of wikipedia views than there actual percent of computer users.

    Quote Originally Posted by BuffaloX View Post
    Very interesting statistic, that I will add to my pool, but there is a problem:
    I suspect Wikipedia is not used equally much in different regions of the world, is there any breakdown on languages or regions?

    I especially suspect Asian countries to be behind in Linux uptake. The often reported stories about Linux popularity in India and China has no backup in any numbers I can find.

    Asia has almost half of the worlds Internet users.
    You could spend some time looking around http://stats.wikimedia.org/ you probably will find what you're looking for.


    Quote Originally Posted by murderslastcrow View Post
    The simple fact is that Canonical has stated several amounts of known users that are over the 10 million mark, Fedora actually tracks users and has over 20 million, and Ubuntu gets a lot more attention than Fedora, so it's safe to assume it has more than 20 million. So, that's at least 40 million, even if all the other distros are just people pretending to use it or develop it while using Ubuntu or Fedora.

    40 million users out of a little over a billion computer users worldwide. That's 4.1 percent.

    So, from the only numbers we can really count on in any degree, we have at least 4.1 percent market share collectively. If there are more Ubuntu users than Fedora users which is likely, and more than a million users of distros other distributions which is also fairly likely since SUSE actually sells their product to consumers, I believe, then it's likely more than 4.1 percent.
    Where did you get that 1 billion users figure from? http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm has the stats are over 1.8 billion.

    If you consider that the figures on http://distrowatch.com/ are pretty much proportional to the distribution user base, then Fedora's 20 Million represents about 4.8% of all linux users. That would suggest that there are over 400 million Linux users.

    Of course that is an unsubstantiated theory, so even if we concluded, that Fedora represented 15% of all Desktop Linux installations, that would be no less than 130 million Linux Users. Given a total of1.8 billion users, 7.2% would be Linux users.
    Last edited by DoubleClicker; July 12th, 2010 at 05:04 AM. Reason: fixed typo
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  6. #36
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Ah, I guess the last time I looked there were little over 1 billion. Must've been a few years back. So yeah, none of these claims are substantial, but it's pretty obvious that we at least have a few tens of millions. It'd be nice to see how many computers DELL has sold with Ubuntu on them.

    Oh, and this obviously doesn't count all the Android users out there. Again, when we focus on these figures, we seem to miss the point. I think we can all agree that there are many more Linux users today than there were a year ago.

  7. #37
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    My household is 89% linux and 10% mac. Results don't add to 100% due to rounding.

    And that is really the only statistic that matters.
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  8. #38
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    The IP addresses accessing the website don't tell how many unique users are accessing. DHCP can give you different addresses on every session.

  9. #39
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by lostinxlation View Post
    The IP addresses accessing the website don't tell how many unique users are accessing. DHCP can give you different addresses on every session.
    Back when most people used dial-up, that was a major concern, but with always on connections, it is rare for someone to get a change in IP address. Most ISPs today have a longer expiration cycle, so even if your computer was down for a couple of days you will likely get the same IP address.

    I've had the same IP, for the entire time, that I've used Comcast.
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  10. #40
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    Re: Linux share at record high.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin2128 View Post
    I always thought it hovered at or around 1%! I'm fairly skeptical, doubt it's higher than 2 or 3% though, seeing as out of the people I know, I only know 2 who have ever heard of linux.
    I've got 50% just including my siblings and myself (6), though basing it off of how many people you know who use Linux, is a pretty weak standard.

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