No way! I had Amiga games that lasted forever! Lol.
I personally can't wait for all optical media (and hard-disk drives) to be obsolete...flash media ftw!
the only way I see to obsolete optical media is replacing them with downloads. A CD (/dvd) costs just cents to produce, flash media will not likely ever get quit that cheap. Downloads can replace its function in many cases, but I dont see optical media disappear completely any time soon as it will be quite some time before almost everyone has a broadband internet connection.
As for harddrives, I do see that happening. Harddrives have a relatively large fixed cost and a very low per GB cost, so they have a price/capacity advantage for higher capacities, but the point where they meet in price goes up rather fast. I still have a 1GB IBM microdrive somewhere (miniature harddrive in CF format) for an old digital camera. When I bought it it was like €250 which was dirt cheap compared to equivalent sized memory cards. Im guessing today the "break even" point is now somewhere closer to 50 GB and it wont be long before its 500+GB.
I think at one point everyone will have SSDs embedded in their TVs along with some sort of movie streaming device (netflix?), and blockbuster will go out of business (hehe).
Also, I predict that in the near future the next console wars between Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will have consoles without any form of physical media...all games will be downloaded to an SSD in the console, internet access would be completely necessary.
And again, these are all just my predictions, and they're probably mostly wrong
5-6 years later, we were using floppies all the time at work to transport data to customer sites and went through a ton of them. I found myself putting the same data on two or three disks because I wasn't sure I'd be able to get from the office to the jobsite with the data intact. And forget about reusing them more than a couple times, that was just begging for a bad sector in the middle of your work. That was what pushed us to using any new format we could to replace floppies.
The hardest part of breaking the dependence on floppies was customers. I work on HVAC control systems, and the computers the customers used were well behind the times. Even today very few sites get a new computer for their facility management crew, they just find the oldest hand-me-down that still runs! So switching to USB drives took forever as you'd often show up on site to find they were running something with Win95 or that just didn't have any USB ports on it.
Floppy disks, BIOS, dialup, the Playstation 2 and Windows XP desperately need to be put out of their misery and DIE already. It's 2010, for god's sake.
I try to treat the cause, not the symptom. I avoid the terminal in instructions, unless it's easier or necessary. My instructions will work within the Ubuntu system, instead of breaking or subverting it. Those are the three guarantees to the helpee.
If it ain't broke...
Speaking of old media, remember this? I can't believe we launched LP records out of the solar system. When some ET finds it in a million years or so, they are going to think we were all idiots. It's embarrassing I tell you.
Anyway, my basement is a museum of old media. Floppies, zip drives, punch cards and tape I've hung onto for nostalgic purposes, boxes of LPs, CDs I've long since ripped, audio cassettes, micro cassettes, 8-tracks, videotape (VHS and Beta!), Super 8 family movies I converted to VHS twenty years ago and then to digital... I guess I need to clean house.