Linux development has mostly been reactionary, traditionally. I don't think that is the case any more, at least not so much. It stems from the fact that if you want Linux to be a viable alternative to other OSes, you first have to make sure it can do everything that those other OSes offer. If that means making some reactionary software, the Gimp, OpenOffice, stuff to get peripherals to work properly, and others, then so be it. There isn't a real need to re-invent the wheel a lot of the time: if the standard Windows 95 desktop GUI is the template that seems to work the best, then who are we to argue? rather than throw the baby out with the bathwater, we should instead try to hone and improve on these things. A lot of the time, real, far-out megainnovation just isn't really necessary.
All that said, I believe we're entering the long-tail phase. Linux has stable, use-able desktop distributions, dozens of them. We've got that down-pat. As far as I'm concerned, there are few areas that really need a lot of work. What comes next is honing and refining what we've already achieved to finally fulfil the needs of those users who are holding out. Often you see around here people claiming to dual-boot for the benefit of just one or two applications or peripherals. That's the last thing Linux has left to conquer.
But on the sidelines of the main push to make Linux as good as it can be, you do see some pretty out-there innovations. The Metisse Window system is one of my favourites, particularly, I think the facade system could really revolutionise the way we think about the user interface. Have a look at the sort of thing it can do (the animated gif stops after the first play, so hit ctrl-f5 to see it again if you miss it):
And then of course there is the Google Wave stuff, which I hope really does shake things up. It's something I can see completely changing everything, so long as the developers get it right. I hope they do.
All in all, I think innovation is happening, just that it's mostly happening on the fringes of the major projects. This isn't a bad thing, as eventually the things that are really cool will find themselves filtering down to the main show. And then every now and then, you get something incredible like Wave or Wikipedia coming down on everybody like a tonne of bricks. I don't think they'd be quite as awesome if we had that sort of insane innovation every day.
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