View Full Version : Do you think its really possible?
October 31st, 2005, 01:41 AM
Well, windows probably gains more new users then linux does. The people who buy their first computer will most likly have windows on it since it is basically what comes on new computers. Linux users are normally people who have switched from windows.
For every one of the thousands of new PCs shipped from Dell, HP, etc every day, windows gains a user. Now, it might not be a new user.
Do you really think its possible to get a majority of computers using linux? How do you think this will be achieved? How long will it take? Do you accually want it to happen, or are you happy having it the way it is?
Personally, I have no idea if it will ever happen. If it does, we will certainly need to get the PC manufacturers to join in. It is already starting with HP. I personally would love it if linux got a majority over windows, and I hope Mark, Ubuntu, and the ubuntu community lead the way. (Id like ubuntu to have a majority in the linux market, which has a majority in the OS market ;))
Maybe someday we will be able to say "I liked it before it was popular".
October 31st, 2005, 02:07 AM
Don't you think it's far too simplistic to just say "more linux users?"
Consider: there are tens of thousands of people using tivos. Every one of them is "a linux user." There are Millions of people in Asia using 3G cellphones and increasingly linux is actually seen as a feature to be sought!
Do all these cellphones really have any impact at all on development of new desktop products? Given that we don't even use that "world standard" telephone technology in the way these countries do, even the phone technology isn't likely to help "brand" linux the same way it will in Asia.
We use linux because we're geeks. For most folks the operating system doesn't even matter - no one says "I want to use windows because it's the best" they say "I want to use windows because I use office" or "I use windows because all my software is windows" or even "I use windows because the games on popcap don't play right in linux or on macs."
Linux will never be popular here. By the time it's "popular" the operating system will be moot - programs will ship with their own runtimes and "computers" will allow all those separate processes to work together the same way "operating systems" do for applications now. Lots of people will be using linux, but they won't realize it - all they'll know is they insert the Gimp 7.0 CD and it "installs" - just like Photoshop 10 and MS Media Player 12...
October 31st, 2005, 02:09 AM
linux is *already* popular...for servers.
My prediction is that there might be a move to linux desktops in large organizations--big corps, government agencies, school systems. That'll drive the market.
October 31st, 2005, 02:11 AM
I see one of the following happening:
1. Microsoft continues to dominate, Apple continues to trail behind, and Linux remains a hobby desktop OS.
2. A big company like Dell or HP takes a risk and actually starts selling Linux preloaded desktops en masse in flagrant disregard of OEM deals with Microsoft, and Linux becomes wildly popular because it's cheaper and just new--the success of this would depend greatly on a number of other factors. For example, the timing would have to be at the announcement of a huge number of newer Windows viruses that attack both corporations and home users and some massive jump in Windows prices or Microsoft Office prices.
3. Open source applications like Firefox keep getting adopted by Windows users. Pretty soon, they realize they have so many open source apps that open source can be trusted, and the transition to Linux is a lot easier. Instead of getting a pirated or expensive version of the newest Windows, they just get the next logical step--an open source operating system.
4. Operating systems become irrelevant as--according to Poofyhairyguy's predictions--"computers" become more like appliances (think PS2 and Gamecube, cell phones, and iPods) and less like do-everything machines. In that case, Linux will probably be in most of those devices, but no one will care, except Linux enthusiasts. After all, millions love their TiVos, but few know it's powered by Linux.
5. Schools start adopting more Linux clients as the cost of computing for educators increases and school funding gets cut. Once the children get used to their KDEs and Gnomes, it's only a matter of time before they become office users and home users and demand that Linux be on their computers.
6. A "killer app" that's developed for Linux is, in fact, killer and one that everyday users (not just computer nerds) care about. Sure, it may get ported to Windows (the killer app probably being open source and all), but the Windows version will be sorely lacking somehow. This won't make a lot of people Linux users, but it will probably increase the number.
7. Wine gets to the point where it can work on every major Windows application or Crossover Office loses its price tag. Again, it won't shift everyone over to Linux, but it'll take a huge barrier away from adoption.
8. Web-based applications become the norm, making Linux migration even easier, as no one can complain about such-and-such application "needing" Windows.
9. Nothing major happens. Just every day two more people become Linux users and one more person gives up on Linux. It's slow growth, but it happens.
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