The Future of Computers?

[Jim!]

After seeing this thread: http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=824554

It reminded me how far computers have come in such a short period of time, think about it 25 years ago a 250MB HDD was something to brag about now days thats small for a thumb drive! So, what do you think about the future of computers, any idea on what will be seeing in another 25 years? 5 years even?

From what I've heard computer technology seems to be advancing at a faster pace every years or something. Not 100% sure if what I just said makes sense but hey.......

Discuss!

[SunnyRabbiera]

Well technolgy is flying for sure, we can certainly thank Japan for the most part as request high tech but with small spaces...
Laptops are also probably to blame, everything has to be smaller in them so the more compact the more cheap and efficient.
The future of computing seems very good

[mips]

Nothing really revolutionary has occured in the last 25 years. Everything was small gradual steps of progress.

The Amiga 1000/500 was probably the most notable thing to happen in the last 25 years.

[SunnyRabbiera]

Nothing really revolutionary has occured in the last 25 years. Everything was small gradual steps of progress.

The Amiga 1000/500 was probably the most notable thing to happen in the last 25 years.

I disagree, even though the basics are the same computers are evolving.
Sure there has not been terrible progress, but its the little things that make a big difference.
I mean look how smll some computers are, the Mac Mini would have been insane 25 years ago, now computers are becoming more compact.

[Bubba64]

We are at nano levels with chips now, quantum computing seems like the future but we are far from it. Things are slowing down.
http://www.wildirisdesign.com/nano/nanocomputing.html

[SunnyRabbiera]

We are at nano levels with chips now, quantum computing seems like the future but we are far from it. Things are slowing down.

well even if it slows down for a little while it will probably pick up speed again in the near future.

[Bubba64]

well even if it slows down for a little while it will probably pick up speed again in the near future.

I meant to put that in there, I am not a geek, I just read the science reports, thanks for pointing this out though.:)

[mips]

I disagree, even though the basics are the same computers are evolving.
Sure there has not been terrible progress, but its the little things that make a big difference.
I mean look how smll some computers are, the Mac Mini would have been insane 25 years ago, now computers are becoming more compact.

You just said everything I said so I will agree with you :)

[Jim!]

Slowing down? From what I heard/read the rate of technology advancing is speeding up! (correct me if I'm wrong haven't been on the net much in recent months:D)

[jespdj]

Who knows what's going to happen?

I remember sitting in the train, maybe 10 years ago or so, with an 1 GB harddisk in my hand that I just bought, thinking "Wow, a thousand megabytes, this harddisk is so big, it must be impossible to fill it up!".

I think that SSD (solid state drives, with flash memory) are going to become larger and cheaper within the next few years, and in maybe 3-4 years many people will have an SSD instead of a regular harddisk.

Processors will continue to become faster, get more cores, and use less power.

4 GB RAM will be the standard amount of memory for new computers in 1-2 years.

I think that especially mobile devices (mini-laptops, smartphones) are going to get more and more powerful in the next few years.

[vrangforestillinger]

25 years ago a 250MB HDD was something to brag about now days thats small for a thumb drive!

250MB in 1983?? My father bought a 5MHz 8086 with 30MB HDD 640kb memory in 1986. And I think that was quite big at the time.


So, what do you think about the future of computers, any idea on what will be seeing in another 25 years? 5 years even?

When it comes to harddrives, it seems we are able to fill them up no matter how big they get. I mean, back in the days, I filled my harddrive with a several GB mp3-collection. Then, as the harddrives got bigger I started filling it with video and a flac collection (a backup of my CD-collection). Now, as the harddrives get even bigger, it seems people are starting to fill them with HD-video.


We are at nano levels with chips now, quantum computing seems like the future but we are far from it. Things are slowing down.

To me it seems that when the increase in speed starts to slow, technology quickly finds a way to pick up the pace again. Now that the clock-frequencies are nearing a physical limit, it seems the pace is picking up by adding more CPU-cores instead etc etc.

Quantum computing is going to be very interesting when(/if?) it starts to be practically usable outside of cryogenic labs. But I wonder what to do with my crypto-keys then.

[gameryoshi600]

tech usually you need to keep up with if you want to get a job in it. thats the way it goes.

[the yawner]

My only gripe is how software developers use technology as a reason to develop bloatware.

[diablo75]

I think you guys are focusing a little too much on hardware advancements. What about software? What about the increasing adoption of open-source philosophy? Just look at how sweet Ubuntu 8.04 is in terms of stability and performance. Its pretty impressive. And to think I'm running on a 2 GHz Athlon STILL, and have no real desire to upgrade because it performs so well, if not better than it used to, while gradually increasing in functionality.

But hardware, of course, does play into this. Did you see that video of Intel showing off "The worlds smallest PC motherboard (http://www.engadget.com/2008/04/03/video-intel-reveals-moorestown-pc-motherboard-possibly-worlds/)"? What technology like this will have the greatest impact on is...well.... EVERYTHING! We're about to start carrying, not a cell phone that you can do a few little things on, but practically full functioning PC's the size of your pocket, with ALL the bells and whistles you can imagine and then some. The iPhone is a precursor. Once the Google phone hits, the things you'll find people doing with their phones won't cease to surprise you day after day, thanks to the open platform it will use.

But this is just stuff that's going to happen in the next 5 years. How about the next 15? What will happen in that period of time?

[Methuselah]

Yup, the future is smaller, and running linux.

[KingTermite]

Predictions...OK, here they go.

1) Solid State Memory (Flash drives) are going to keep increasing in capacity until they become our main source of permanent storage.

2) We'll start carrying our OS/Computer on a high capacity flash drive and boot it to "any" computer (possible already).

3) "Dummy" computers will start cropping up in business (like coffee shops) to allow us to boot into with our flash drives.

4) Wireless will eventually be seamless with little or no setup required by the end user. Wired internet will go away.

[KingTermite]

Nothing really revolutionary has occured in the last 25 years. Everything was small gradual steps of progress.

The Amiga 1000/500 was probably the most notable thing to happen in the last 25 years.

As much as I would "like" to disagree with this...I really can't. Technology has steadily increased, but as stated, nothing "truly revolutionary" has happened in the last 25 years. I can't think of anything "revolutionary" since the transistor/microchip breakthrough.

[_DD_]

My only gripe is how software developers use technology as a reason to develop bloatware.

I agree. Just because computer's are getting far more powerful, it doesn't mean you can get lazy and let things become resource hogs (even though the resources are there). If computers used to run well on kilobytes of memory, why does it now take megabytes to open a text editor? Those resources could be put to better use doing proper computing rather than rendering shiny buttons on an interface.

</rant>...

...*goes and downloads latest compiz fusion*







:D



Ok, I agree and disagree. I feel its ok to make use of some of this wasted computing power in fun ways (shiny buttons :p) but it gets to a point, like you say, where its just taken for granted.

[KingTermite]

I agree. Just because computer's are getting far more powerful, it doesn't mean you can get lazy and let things become resource hogs (even though the resources are there). If computers used to run well on kilobytes of memory, why does it now take megabytes to open a text editor?
Although I agree with the sentiment 100%, let me also make another alternative viewpoint.

Everything is GUI based nowadays and devlopers can't (time and money) develop their own custom GUIs for every piece of software. They almost have to use GUI frameworks (out of necessity); and a lot of the bloat comes from those frameworks, not the end application itself.

It's kind of hard to create an easy GUI wrapper to the complex graphical subsystem without it taking a lot of memory (because of all the code it takes to put it together).

[mips]

250MB in 1983?? My father bought a 5MHz 8086 with 30MB HDD 640kb memory in 1986. And I think that was quite big at the time.


There was no 250MB HD available in 1983 for the home market.

[_DD_]

Everything is GUI based nowadays and devlopers can't (time and money) develop their own custom GUIs for every piece of software. They almost have to use GUI frameworks (out of necessity); and a lot of the bloat comes from those frameworks, not the end application itself.

Just as semi-proof of that... I'm on my dad's Vista computer at the moment and, with just one Firefox window open, the task manager shows dwm.exe (desktop window manager) is using 90mb of RAM. Its only the process which handles the Aero theme with the transparencies and window decorations (if you kill it then it reverts to the basic theme), but with the FF window maximized the window decorations and task-bar become opaque. So its currently using 90mb or RAM to render the strip of opaque window decorations at the top and the opaque start bar at the bottom.

[delfick]

memristors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memristor#Potential_applications) + Moore's law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law) + everything getting smaller = exciting future :)

(I just wanted to mention memristors :p)

[_DD_]

ooo, how about interfaces of the future?...

Things really haven't changed much in the last decade or so in terms of usability (as opposed to eye-candy). The same basic principle of windows that can be moved, resized, hidden or closed with buttons on a bar at the top and launched using buttons in a menu has stayed the same for years. Things have just got more shiny :p

Touch interfaces are a nice thought for the future, but I don't feel they're practical for all the time. For example, until brain-reading stuff comes in I'd much rather type on a mechanical keyboard than a touchpad. You cannot beat the tactile feedback of pressing real buttons when inputting large amounts of text.

[KingTermite]

ooo, how about interfaces of the future?...

Things really haven't changed much in the last decade or so in terms of usability (as opposed to eye-candy). The same basic principle of windows that can be moved, resized, hidden or closed with buttons on a bar at the top and launched using buttons in a menu has stayed the same for years. Things have just got more shiny :p

Touch interfaces are a nice thought for the future, but I don't feel they're practical for all the time. For example, until brain-reading stuff comes in I'd much rather type on a mechanical keyboard than a touchpad. You cannot beat the tactile feedback of pressing real buttons when inputting large amounts of text.

That's a good point. In terms of input, I think we're long overdue to find something to replace the mouse. I get hand cramps from the cupped shape of the mouse. It's taken me YEARS to develop it, but still.......

I'd like to see something better than the mouse.