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View Full Version : When XP sales stop, will people start looking at Linux?



Ub1476
December 13th, 2007, 09:11 PM
Hello all. Many of you might know that Microsoft will stop selling Windows XP after June 2008. People will basically be forced to use Windows, unless they look at Linux. There are numerous threads on forums about the web, where people are looking for help on how to install XP back to their new computer.

Due to Vista being the only Windows alternativ, do you think there will be a larger increase of interest in Linux after June 08?

Mazza558
December 13th, 2007, 09:33 PM
Most people will probably just keep their XP PCs and then buy a new Vista one in a few years.

SunnyRabbiera
December 13th, 2007, 09:35 PM
well maybe, but then again with the recent issues with vista XP might get a longer lifespan then it has now, already its going to last till June as originally it was supposed to stop selling as soon as the new year began...
so who knows, XP might not be going anywhere any time soon

some_random_noob
December 13th, 2007, 09:37 PM
Due to Vista being the only Windows alternativ, do you think there will be a larger increase of interest in Linux after June 08?

Not really, even if Vista drives its users insane I doubt they'll change their OS. The reason is because no-one knows about Ubuntu and you can't get it from your local computer store etc (You almost ALWAYS have to download and install it yourself; Plus the troubleshooting). Compare that with Windows, where every product has a "Windows compatible" sticker on it these days. People don't feel safe with something which is new and not adopted.

However, hopefully Ubuntu-Dell computers will kick-off by mid-08. The average person isn't just going to move to something with 1% of the market which no-one else uses... unless:

1. Their friends are also using it (Not likely by 2008 )
2. You can get it pre-installed easily (Only a real option if you are in the US or Europe)


Most people will probably just keep their XP PCs and then buy a new Vista one in a few years

This is a very good point. I sure as hell hope it slows Vista-adoption. People will only ever get Vista with a new computer.

igknighted
December 13th, 2007, 09:37 PM
Doubtful. Despite what most linux users will proclaim, Vista isn't that bad and I highly doubt most users will have major issues when moving over... at least to the point where it will make them actively search for alternatives.

evil316
December 13th, 2007, 09:42 PM
More people would use Linux if it was marketed. As it is now you really need to search it out. Everyone in my house uses Ubuntu except for the 8 year old cause I didn't want to mess with her xp machine due to the windows specific software she has and I didn't want to spend time with wine getting them to work. Anyway my wife and daughter much prefer Ubuntu to either xp or vista as do I. They like the fact that it's faster, less buggy, don't have to worry about the viruses and such nearly as much, highly configurable, they don't have to ask me for expensive software, they just download it and use it, and the gui simply speaks their language better than windows does.

Most people will use or buy what they are marketed rather than look at the options and make an informed decision. This is the main reason Windows has the market share it does for home PC's. How many linux users that were formally windows users at some point thought to themselves "Hey, there has to be something better out there" and went and looked and found linux? A lot I would suggest.

tech9
December 13th, 2007, 09:43 PM
When XP sales stop, will people start looking at Linux?

It would be the smart thing to do :-$

evil316
December 13th, 2007, 09:45 PM
Another thing that will help people switch from windows to linux is gaming systems. The reason is a lot of people still use their PC's for gaming and claim Linux doesn't have the gaming support windows does. It's decent but new games aren't being written for linux like they are windows. With the Wii, Xbox 360, PS3 and others more computer gamers finally think they can get rid of windows and go with linux and use a game platform for gaming. I know a friend of mine is just about to make that decision now.

gn2
December 13th, 2007, 09:51 PM
Due to Vista being the only Windows alternativ, do you think there will be a larger increase of interest in Linux after June 08?

Not really. MS will just stop issuing Xp licences in 2008, all existing Xp licences will have security support until 2014.

Ub1476
December 13th, 2007, 09:56 PM
Not really. MS will just stop issuing Xp licences in 2008, all existing Xp licences will have security support until 2014.

Certainly, but I wouldn't say it's easy to obtain a not pirated license after that.

jrusso2
December 13th, 2007, 10:14 PM
Most new computers come installed with Vista now. Most people will continue to suffer with Vista.

Those who want to change will probably buy a mac and then you can have the best of both worlds.

Linux will always be a fringe operating system, but thats ok with me.,

Mad_Dawg
December 13th, 2007, 10:18 PM
That will depend on the hardware support. If Vista picks up the hardware that it has so far ignored, then the loyal fans will continue with it. If not, then they will find ways to continue indefinitly with the XP. There are still people running Win98

One of the reasons that I have Kubuntu on my machine is because it was supposed to find all my hardware. I had to dual boot the two (Kubuntu and XP) in order to use the printer.

I decided to look at Linux while I still have the luxury of time. I refuse to "upgrade" to Vista because it would instantly obsolete hardware that would cost too much to replace.

As time goes by, I think the geek oriented people will check out Linux. Everyone else will simply buy new hardware.

Now, if Kubuntu would only find my HP Laserjet 4000...

Dark Hornet
December 13th, 2007, 10:29 PM
Coming from a pretty hard core gamer...People will use windows until games, etc are available on Linux. (and not through WINE). My gaming box has an 8800 GTX, etc, and right now if I am going to "get my monies worth" on that card, I will be using it in a Windows box...not to mention that the newest DX10 games will ONLY run on Vista (at the moment). Now I use Ubuntu ONLY for everything else other than a few games, and I would LOVE to be 100% windows free, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.....anyway, thats just my 2 cents.

happysmileman
December 13th, 2007, 10:40 PM
Coming from a pretty hard core gamer...People will use windows until games, etc are available on Linux. (and not through WINE). My gaming box has an 8800 GTX, etc, and right now if I am going to "get my monies worth" on that card, I will be using it in a Windows box...not to mention that the newest DX10 games will ONLY run on Vista (at the moment). Now I use Ubuntu ONLY for everything else other than a few games, and I would LOVE to be 100% windows free, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.....anyway, thats just my 2 cents.

I switched to Linux last year, when my computer stopped being able to run the latest games and I've never looked back...

Now that i've seen how much better it is at everything except games I'd just buy a PS3 for gaming and keep using Linux anyway

Dark Hornet
December 13th, 2007, 10:46 PM
Yeah...I understand what you are saying, but I am not a huge console person...I need my mouse and keyboard....It is really frustrating...because I use Ubuntu for EVERYTHING else....in fact, I don't even use Windows at work...I use SUN Solaris. I am slowly getting there though (I think). I just got WoW working on my Ubuntu box, and now I am taking a look at the other games I play. I guess in my mind I want to be able to take full advantage of the $700.00 gfx card I bought. Although I am getting the "itch" to build another system, and this one will be built with Ubuntu in mind. :guitar:

zcal
December 13th, 2007, 10:51 PM
Most new computers come installed with Vista now. Most people will continue to suffer with Vista.

Those who want to change will probably buy a mac and then you can have the best of both worlds.

I agree. People will use what their computer comes with, be it Vista or XP or '98. Those who don't want Windows will buy a Mac.

Why do you think there are so many computer repair shops and services out there? The majority of users don't understand how to keep antivirus and antispybot software up to date, let alone install an operating system by themselves. If that little popup from the hardware vendor's software didn't keep warning them to update the software with a simple click of a button, they'd never do it.

And let's face it, getting more games supported natively on Linux isn't going to make THAT big of difference in terms of boosting its user base. Most people don't use their computers to play games.

Advertisement and preinstallation by hardware vendors...that's what it'll take to push Linux to more desktops.

popch
December 13th, 2007, 10:52 PM
The Windows licences I buy allow me to downgrade to any version of Windows I fancy. I can buy the installation media for about the same price as I buy your average Linux distro in a PC or book shop.

So, for the organisation I work for not using Vista is not a problem in the foreseeable future.

aysiu
December 13th, 2007, 10:58 PM
Actually, XP will be getting mainstream support until April 2009, and then will still continue to get extended support with security updates until April 2014.
http://www.zdnet.co.uk/talkback/0,1000001161,39290919-39001093c-20089164o,00.htm
http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/?LN=en-us&x=10&y=14&p1=3223

Considering that people still used (and use) Windows 98 after Microsoft ended support for it, I think this is a non-issue. The types of Windows users who are enthusiasts or just need a new computer will buy Vista computers and live with it. The other Windows users will stick with Windows XP until 2014 or when their computers "die." By then, Vista+1 will be out and may be better.

Frankly, if Windows ME can't kill Windows dominance, then I don't think Vista can either.

lancest
December 14th, 2007, 12:08 AM
How long can XP keep going? Ten years? I doubt it can compare at that point.

bruce89
December 14th, 2007, 12:21 AM
Those who want to change will probably buy a mac and then you can have the best of both worlds.


Not if Leopard's anything to go by.

Scotty Bones
December 14th, 2007, 12:24 AM
Frankly, if Windows ME can't kill Windows dominance, then I don't think Vista can either.

I don't think that entirely true this time around. Back in the days of ME there were really no good alternatives for the masses to turn to. With the advances that Mac and Linux have made, I think it might be a different story this time.
In my experience, most people just don't like Vista and those who do don't really use their computers for more than surfing the net, email and occasional word processing (and even these people seem to have a lot of problems).
Most people buy a new computer to have a faster machine but when they find out that their 4 year old XP box runs faster than their new top of the line Vista machine, they are...well...pissed.
It was my disappointment with Vista that brought me to Linux and I see many others doing the same or at least considering the viability of making the switch. ME was a disaster, XP wasn't that great when it first hit the market and now with Vista flopping; I just see confidence in MS products eroding away. It's not going to happen overnight but if MS continues down this path, I see them standing to lose a good percentage of market share to alternatives over time.