$4 Gasoline? Here we go again!

[Dragonbite]

According to this article, we can expect to see $4 per gallon of gasoline?!! Ugghh.... just in time for summer vacation, huh?

http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/26/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?eref=rss_topstories (http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/26/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?eref=rss_topstories)
... it will be in those states, and possibly New England and the northern Midwest, where prices have the best chance of hitting $4 a gallon ...

Time to pump the air into the bicycle tires (how quickly can I commute 35 miles from Waterbury into Hartford on a bicycle?)

[TheIdiotThatIsMe]

Howdy. I already dont drive because of gas and insurance rates :popcorn: Nothing like the wind in your hair from a bicycle ;)

[ViRMiN]

Count yourself lucky, a equivalent price of a US gallon in the UK is around £3.80, which is probably about $7.50!!!

[garlik42]

Maybe we should start calling this group, the international ubuntu-connecticut loco!!

I am planning on getting a hybrid this summer, and I'm in process of converting my house to use solar energy. I'm tired of burning extinct rotted animals and plants!!

[pmasiar]

According to this article, we can expect to see $4 per gallon of gasoline?!! Ugghh.... just in time for summer vacation, huh?

$4 if we are lucky and no war with Iran. War = $120 per barrel = $8 / gallon. Check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz : The strait at its narrowest is 21 miles wide [1], having two 1-mile-wide channels for marine traffic separated by a 2-mile-wide buffer zone.

So 4 miles wide path to get big part of our oil out. Guess what happen if Iran is upset? Russians sold them http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VA-111_Shkval_torpedo capable of speeds in excess of 200 knots (approximately 370 km/h. = 230 mph )

If you really want to worry, check http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/ Blogger, former CIA operative, writes about new generation warfare - he calls it "open source guearillas" . Swarming, system disruptions, etc.

[ViRMiN]

How much is a US gallon of petrol (gasoline) for you guys right now?

[paulfife]

It's about $2.65 here in Oklahoma City. This is one of the cheaper areas in the US though. I think the US average is closer to $3.

[MRiGnS]

in europe you would pay at least 5.5$ / gallone with all our taxes.

[ViRMiN]

Yup,as I say, I'm looking at $7.50 (based on 93pence per UK litre) for a US gallon... lots of conversion work going on here!

[garlik42]

Just did a quick search,
Highest prices in US are in California 3.35
Lowest prices in New Jersey 2.68
Connecticut Average is 3.00

Here in Hamden, the lowest price station I pass on the way to work, went from 2.99 to 3.09 in one day.

[ViRMiN]

Is there much difference in price between petrol and diesel over there? They only differ here by a couple of pence per litre...

[garlik42]

There is a difference between diesel and gasoline, but it is more seasonal, since diesel and home fuel oil are actually the same (except for taxes) during the winter, diesel will get real close to the price of gasoline.

Years ago, diesel was quite a bit cheaper.

Just spoke to a client, from Australia he says about $5.50 (au) a gallon ...

[Hendrixski]

Greetings Connecticut team.. from a NY-loco team members
howdy neighbors... our Gas prices are about on par with yours. So yea, it's that entire "peak oil" thing. read about it on Wikipedia.

This summer it'll be $4... next summer it'll be $5.50 the summer after that $7 the summer after that $13 the summer after that $21, then $30 then... then a recession as we adjust to alternative energy, and in 15 years we'll be right back where we are now and everything will be dandy. :-)

[ViRMiN]

Is diesel advertised at the pumps as diesel or does it go by another name? Just thinking wth you guys calling it "gasoline" and us Brits, "petrol" :)

[Dragonbite]

It's "Diesel"

[Sunflower1970]

*sigh*

Time to get back to riding the bus part way to work/biking the rest of the way...I don't mind doing it, but it takes about an hour + to and from work

[ViRMiN]

Cheers! I drive a diesel, hence the question :) Don't know if I'll ever find myself drifting over the ocean like but, best to know the terminology if you do :D

[elephant007]

Maybe we should start calling this group, the international ubuntu-connecticut loco!!

I am planning on getting a hybrid this summer, and I'm in process of converting my house to use solar energy. I'm tired of burning extinct rotted animals and plants!!

Before you spend way too much money on a hybrid vehicle, do some research. Hybrids tend to be over priced. I read an article not too long ago that pointed out that the price you pay for the vehicle itself is more than paying for high dollar gasoline. The example it gave was that gas would have to be 14 dollars for 10 years for the cost difference to be justified. Look at http://www.40mpg.org and find some info there...
I'd just hate to see someone pay 6 to 10 thousand dollars more because it's a hybrid and because of slick marketing that doesn't reveal the whole truth about hybrids. Buy a car that can get 40mpg and save!

[Calash]

And I wanted to get a more powerful car....guess I am stuck with my lil Hyundai Accent for another year. My cat has more horse power, but I get awesome gas mileage :)

[Snargledorf]

Im a new driver and i can tell you there is no worse way to be welcomed into the world of driving :-P

[pmasiar]

Take it in perspective.

Imagine you will be telling your grandchildren, about how you just got to the pump, pumped full tank for like $3 or $4 per gallon, and just drive around for fun. They would not believe you. For them, it will be past long gone, together with glaciers, polar bear, Great Barrier Reef of Australia, New Orleans and Gulf Stream. Get "Inconvenient Truth", book or DVD.

Someone said that it is misleading to say we inherited the Earth from forefathers - in fact, we borrowed it from our children :-(

[Dragonbite]

I never thought I'd be happy to pay $3.10 per gallon of gas, but when I see the other stations charging $3.32+ I feel a little better.

I remember when I was going to school in New Hampshire where gas was $0.99 and Connecticut was just over $1! Oh, how times have changed (and it's only been about 13-15 years).

Now if only the car manufacturers could keep up with the price in producing cars that had better mileage other than econo-boxes (in other words, usable cars)!

[Dragonbite]

So, are we going to reach $4 this summer? Your Predictions!!

[Kevbert]

You're lucky. 65% of our gasoline price is tax (approx $5).

[ViRMiN]

$4!?!?! It's over $10.50 a gallon over here!

[ViRMiN]

And to think it was only $7.50 this time last year :(

[jken146]

It's about $8 a gallon here.

[ViRMiN]

It's about $8 a gallon here.

D'oh, didn't take into account US/Imperial gallons! It's just under $9 a gallon...

[Dragonbite]

Whats the Pound vs USD rate?

[kg4tah]

http://a399.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images01/102/l_7fd11d3b765fc1474ce7c2d4976e9bf6.gif

I received this in my email today, figured it would make a good addition to this thread.

[vrangforestillinger]

Heh. In my location, Norway (third largets oil-exporter in the world), the price is now around $9.5 per gallon in todays dollars. I think the price is about the same in most of western europe (according to my german friend, correct me if im wrong).

Most people still drive. Im using the bicycle when its not freezing cold (march-october), and public transportation otherwise.

On the other hand, the Norwegian electricity is quite cheap. Right now, the price is 6 cents per kWh.

[Dragonbite]

I saw $4.09! :(

[asmiller-ke6seh]

Heh. In my location, Norway (third largets oil-exporter in the world), the price is now around $9.5 per gallon in todays dollars. I think the price is about the same in most of western europe (according to my german friend, correct me if im wrong).

Most people still drive. Im using the bicycle when its not freezing cold (march-october), and public transportation otherwise.

On the other hand, the Norwegian electricity is quite cheap. Right now, the price is 6 cents per kWh.

While most European countries have much higher gasoline prices ... isn't it also true that a large part of that price is in the form of taxes that are used, among other things, to make a large aount of high quality public transportation alternatives?

If I could walk a few blocks from my home to catch a bus to work, and get to work in a half an hour or so (I live 12 minutes drive from work) at a cost a dollar or two, I would be glad to pay $9.50/gallon for my gas.

[fooman]

10-10-08

hamden, ct

corner of skiff and whitney.... $3.19 per gallon for regular (thats the cash price...add 10 cents for credit)

...i believe i saw it at that very station as high as $4.40 - $4.50 just a few short months ago.

[Dragonbite]

$2.89 a couple days ago at Costco (Waterbury)!

Anybody have any idea what home heating oil is going at? We've got the house temp turned down to try and conserve as much as we can and hold off on needing oil (or having to take less to re-fill the tank) until Jan or later!

[fooman]

$2.47, cumberland farms in stratford! :D

home heating oil $2.57...

http://www.plainvilleoil.com/

[fooman]

b.j.'s north haven....$1.99 (members price)

[Dragonbite]

b.j.'s north haven....$1.99 (members price)

Wow!

Is anybody else thinking about getting a big 'ol tank to put in their back yard and horde this before it goes back up?!

[Heaven Net]

We are once again experiencing wild price fluctuations in the petroleum markets that threaten to repeat the frightful damage that was done last summer. This is coming at a time when the political machinery is in high gear to reform financial market regulation. The return of price speculation in petroleum demonstrates the problem confronting the reformers. We all think we have learned something about the damage rampant speculation can do to a market, even to the whole economy. We even think we know what to do to prevent future disasters. But do we know enough to avoid what happened to domestic gasoline prices last summer? One doesn’t have to be an alarmist to be concerned. The press, instead of merely expressing shock, should be reporting the whys and wherefores of this repetitive oil price spike syndrome. And among questions the press should ask are whether and how the financial leaders and experts in the Obama administration, so active these days, will get involved. To put it another way, what are they waiting for?

First, to understand the risk we need to review what happened to the crude oil market last summer. In January of last year the price of crude oil was about $90 a barrel. By July it had risen to $145 per barrel – a 66 percent increase in 162 days! Worse, it was more than double from the previous year. Spectacular as this price increase was, it was nothing compared with the drop back to $30.82 per barrel in just 120 days – a 380 percent change. This volatility in the crude oil price was reflected in the gasoline price which went from $3 per gallon to $4 then plummeted to $1.75 by the year end.

What was at work here? Economists and industry experts rushed to blame market forces: both long and short term trends in supply and demand, especially increased demand from China and India. But the degree of price volatility defied simple market based explanations. As one expert noted, nothing happened in China or India to drive up prices a record $25 in a single day. Long term trends in supply and demand simply do not explain such violent price changes, either up or down.

The most plausible explanation was the weakness of the dollar. And indeed it was a factor. World-wide oil transactions are denominated in dollars. As the dollar weakens against other currencies, buyers must pay more for crude oil to keep the sellers even. The fall in the value of the dollar in 2008 can explain some of the crude oil price increase, but by no means all. In 2008 the dollar never lost more than 7 percent of its value, a loss that cannot come close to justifying a 50 percent crude price increase. In short, what we are left with is an inescapable conclusion that crude oil prices in 2008 were subject to a speculative bubble.

This speculative bubble had serious consequences for U.S. consumers in the first half of 2008. About $60 of the $110 average price of a crude oil barrel can be conservatively ascribed to market fundamentals. The $50 that could not be explained added about $0.40 to the price of a gallon of gasoline. The total net cost for U.S. drivers was $27 billion.

In recent weeks prices have again become volatile. Crude oil spiked above $71 per barrel – an eight-month high. Gasoline prices have likewise shown a spike. Again the “market fundamentals” of supply and demand are offered as an explanation, and once again they have surface appeal. It is true that the International Energy Agency has revised its demand projections upward – now predicting a drop in global demand of only 2.9 percent, up from their earlier projection of a 3 percent drop. Also inventories of both crude oil and gasoline have shown a modest increase. Again there are concerns about increasing demand. And the dollar has slipped a bit.
But all these factors taken together do not justify such a sharp spike. The price movement is too fast and steep to be simply a matter of changes in supply and demand. What is most likely is that there is a perception on the part of speculators that the US economy is beginning to recover from the recession and they are betting on an increase in demand. This perception was reinforced by a general upward trend in commodity prices. The important point is that petroleum prices are extremely vulnerable to bouts of speculation. The risk of another costly speculative bubble is very high. The damage such speculative prices could do to a recovering economy makes the risk unacceptable.

There is no clear answer to what ought to be done. The sheer volume of money flowing in and out of commodity markets is troubling by itself. This is facilitated by investment vehicles such as exchange traded funds that are readily available to investors of all sizes. Making these less easily available and subject to strict margin requirements might help reduce the volatility of the market – on the simple theory that the smaller the herd, the less damage the herd behavior can do. Requiring large traders to report over-the-counter transactions to the CFTC would also help. In any case, for those who are busily rewriting the rules for financial markets, there is some work to be done. Hopefully we all can afford it.