Microsoft after Vista.

[the.dark.lord]

I have heard that MS plans to release Win "Fiji" as their next OS, or more likely a paid upgrade called an OS. I would like to know what you people think MS will become after Vista.

[FuturePilot]

Actually I heard it was supposed to be this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_%22Vienna%22) I still say that Vista is going to be the down fall of Microsoft.

[CheshireMac]

Actually I heard it was supposed to be this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_%22Vienna%22) I still say that Vista is going to be the down fall of Microsoft.
You've struck a chord of curiosity in me . . . I'm an open source advocate, and always like to hear opinions on M$ . . . what's wrong with Longhorn? I'm yet to try it.

[Adamant1988]

Microsoft will not be undone by Vista. A company with that kind of cash does not simply disappear, and I expect they will be making investments into the operating system market LONG after Windows has become obsolete.

The issue many have with Microsoft is that they're starting to limit personal freedoms a lot. For instance, the fact that Vista will not play Non-DRM music, is a little concerning. Simply because if I buy a perfectly legal CD with no DRM on it, I should be able to play it. The whole idea of Windows Genuine Advantage was awful, and should never have been implemented.

However; Vista is, in my eyes, a window of opportunity to expose a lot of problems with the way Microsoft handles the OS market, and start creating a wedge that will eventually allow an alternative that Microsoft can't destroy, buyout, or manipulate. Probably Linux. So, Vista may very well mark the beginning of the end for Windows, but I expect Microsoft will continue to make heavy investments in up-and-coming companies so that even if Windows fails Microsoft will continue to be an important and profitable company.

I also expect them to continue releasing SOFTWARE for whatever platform eventually becomes the standard for Operating Systems, again, theoretically Linux. We'll start seeing Microsoft Office, Internet Explorer, etc. for the top Linux distributions as Microsoft scrambles to shift they way they gain revenue.

[Trebuchet]

My longtime suspicion is that Microsoft will release a Linux distro of its own; and their recent deal with Novell increases that suspicion. It may be a "UNIX-like" OS like Mac OS X (especially in light of Novell's recent problems with the Open Source movement) rather than a true Linux, but I see this evolution as nearly inevitable. (Of course, I still think the whole concept of an OS is going to be totally revise over the next 20 years.) This can only help make Linux more mainstream.

It might be refreshing to actually select an OS based on its features and bundled applications rather than stability, privacy, and security issues.

[Adamant1988]

I expect Microsoft is going to try to influence the distribution they see being the biggest threat, probably investing heavily in the company. Novell is probably the biggest threat for the desktop market, since they are seemingly a very professional company that are willing to cut deals to help themselves out. So Microsoft sees them as easy to influence through the checkbook.

I'm expecting to hear about Microsoft owning a nice chunk (40-50%) of Novell stock in the future.

[Trebuchet]

I expect Microsoft is going to try to influence the distribution they see being the biggest threat, probably investing heavily in the company. Novell is probably the biggest threat for the desktop market, since they are seemingly a very professional company that are willing to cut deals to help themselves out. So Microsoft sees them as easy to influence through the checkbook.

I'm expecting to hear about Microsoft owning a nice chunk (40-50%) of Novell stock in the future.I expect you're right on that. Of course, I imagine Novell is going to have a bit of MS stock too.

If (when!) Microsoft enters the *NIX market, they're going to make a hell of a splash. Their name alone will get hundreds of millions of people to try Linux or whatever their new OS is a variant of. It will probably be fully proprietary like OS X, but will still run Linux apps. Think MS can't break into a new portion of the market? That's what Sony and Nintendo said about the XBox. Why do you think MS just released their virtual machine software (formerly $130) as a freebie and a patch to allow Word to read OpenOffice files? They're looking at new markets.

Veni, vedi, veci. Yes, Linux is looking more attractive every year. And that's exactly why Microsoft is going to move into it.

[DirtDawg]

I expect you're right on that. Of course, I imagine Novell is going to have a bit of MS stock too.

If (when!) Microsoft enters the *NIX market, they're going to make a hell of a splash. Their name alone will get hundreds of millions of people to try Linux or whatever their new OS is a variant of. It will probably be fully proprietary like OS X, but will still run Linux apps. Think MS can't break into a new portion of the market? That's what Sony and Nintendo said about the XBox. Why do you think MS just released their virtual machine software (formerly $130) as a freebie and a patch to allow Word to read OpenOffice files? They're looking at new markets.

Veni, vedi, veci. Yes, Linux is looking more attractive every year. And that's exactly why Microsoft is going to move into it.

It seems to me if Micrsoft begins using a *nix system, it would help ease user's migration to another, possibly free, operating system. Something I'm sure Microsoft wants to avoid.

[Adamant1988]

I expect you're right on that. Of course, I imagine Novell is going to have a bit of MS stock too.

If (when!) Microsoft enters the *NIX market, they're going to make a hell of a splash. Their name alone will get hundreds of millions of people to try Linux or whatever their new OS is a variant of. It will probably be fully proprietary like OS X, but will still run Linux apps. Think MS can't break into a new portion of the market? That's what Sony and Nintendo said about the XBox. Why do you think MS just released their virtual machine software (formerly $130) as a freebie and a patch to allow Word to read OpenOffice files? They're looking at new markets.

Veni, vedi, veci. Yes, Linux is looking more attractive every year. And that's exactly why Microsoft is going to move into it.

Microsoft will eventually leverage Linux, I'm positive. Right now my big 2 distributions that I think we can expect to see Microsoft invest in, or at the very least, copy are:

OpenSuse: We're seeing them make moves here. Novell has a history of innovating and doing great things for Linux, so I fully expect this is Microsoft's #1 target.

Linspire/Freespire: The killer app for this company is CNR, it's a subscription service, but I can tell you it really does work. At one point I was definitely going to pay for a subscription to it. Installations are as easy as "point and click" I really expect this to become a huge plus for distributions, and when Microsoft enters this market, or buys out a company that's already in it, I expect Linspire Co. to be on the list of possible acquisitions. Micheal Robertson (the owner I think) has a history of selling off his "products" . If it's not bought up by Microsoft, it'll certainly be copied.


Another option for Microsoft is to stay the hell out of the Linux OS market, and get themselves seriously in-bed with major distributions to provide apps and services to the user. Again, I'll cite CNR as a perfect example: Should microsoft release a similar service that works cross-distribution, they're not limiting their market any, and with the kind of serious backing MS has other companies will choose to sell their products and services through Microsoft's service. Of course, these companies are paying for favorable placement, and the users are paying for the service, so Microsoft acts as the middle man and collects tons of cash on little work.

I expect Microsoft to back down from making operating systems, and try to create a stranglehold on the linux market strictly through a "killer app/service" that you just "have to have" to use linux.

[Trebuchet]

It seems to me if Microsoft begins using a *nix system, it would help ease user's migration to another, possibly free, operating system. Something I'm sure Microsoft wants to avoid.In theory, possibly. But your average PC user, not being as technically savvy as the average Linux use, is paying for the tech support of that big corporation as much as the OS itself. The Windows name alone will sell many of them. And while there are plenty of excellent volunteer Linux tech support sites (such as this one), those sites would be totally overwhelmed if Linux use increased a thousandfold with the intro on Windows Linux.

In reality (and despite their ad campaigns) Microsoft isn't really selling an OS, it's selling the interface people use to control that OS. Put enough flash and functionality for Joe Average and the big enterprise users into the package and the underlying kernel will be irrelevant to them. To put it another way, what sells most Macs is the slick GUI, not the hardware. In fact one of the biggest hindrances to Macs in fact is their expensive systems because of their vertical integration (Were it not for the price, my next system would be a Mac). It's no surprise that one of the demographics who find Vista most attractive is OS X users, who can appreciate a glitzy GUI with lower hardware costs. In fact, my guess is that Vista is deliberately targeted at Mac users.

Make no mistake: If Microsoft enters the Linux field, for-profit Linux distros such as SUSE and Red Hat are in big trouble. "Hobbyist" distros might survive and even expand, but they'll still be a tiny minority and can be fundamentally ignored by MS just as Intel can essentially ignore Via and other 3rd rate chip makers. Dinosaurs don't need to worry about those tiny shrew-like mammals running around in the undergrowth.

[Shed]

For instance, the fact that Vista will not play Non-DRM music, is a little concerning. Simply because if I buy a perfectly legal CD with no DRM on it, I should be able to play it. The whole idea of Windows Genuine Advantage was awful, and should never have been implemented.

Vista doesn't do that. It does have inbuilt DRM, but this won't affect non-DRMed files. For example, the quality of a HD-DVD/Blu-Ray disc will automatically be degraded (go figure) if you don't have the right encryption hardware. This won't have any effect on your other videos or music, as long as they're free of DRM.

[Trebuchet]

Microsoft will eventually leverage Linux, I'm positive. Right now my big 2 distributions that I think we can expect to see Microsoft invest in, or at the very least, copy are:

OpenSuse: We're seeing them make moves here. Novell has a history of innovating and doing great things for Linux, so I fully expect this is Microsoft's #1 target.

Linspire/Freespire: The killer app for this company is CNR, it's a subscription service, but I can tell you it really does work. At one point I was definitely going to pay for a subscription to it. Installations are as easy as "point and click" I really expect this to become a huge plus for distributions, and when Microsoft enters this market, or buys out a company that's already in it, I expect Linspire Co. to be on the list of possible acquisitions. Micheal Robertson (the owner I think) has a history of selling off his "products" . If it's not bought up by Microsoft, it'll certainly be copied.


Another option for Microsoft is to stay the hell out of the Linux OS market, and get themselves seriously in-bed with major distributions to provide apps and services to the user. Again, I'll cite CNR as a perfect example: Should microsoft release a similar service that works cross-distribution, they're not limiting their market any, and with the kind of serious backing MS has other companies will choose to sell their products and services through Microsoft's service. Of course, these companies are paying for favorable placement, and the users are paying for the service, so Microsoft acts as the middle man and collects tons of cash on little work.

I expect Microsoft to back down from making operating systems, and try to create a stranglehold on the linux market strictly through a "killer app/service" that you just "have to have" to use linux.Exactly right. Microsoft doesn't even need to sell an OS as long as they have killer apps to install on operating systems. Despite great progress with OpenOffice and other commercial suites, Office is still an excellent program and the de facto standard for such suites. A cross-platform Office version that ran on Linux as well as it runs on PCs and Macs would sell very well indeed.

Microsoft is first and foremost a software company. If it looks like operating systems will cease to be profitable, they can always go back to pure applications.

[Adamant1988]

My vision of the future is where computers are bought like Cell phones. You get a free OS that runs perfect on the hardware, and thehardware is significantly reduced in price, but it is pretty gimped without a subscription to a CNR-esque service.

The days when every kid goes to high school with their new $150 laptop with 3 gigs of ram, great graphics, and so forth that their parents bought them for christmas are nigh. Oh, but that laptop came with a contract/required subscription to Microsoft's program installation service for the next 5 years. At which point you'll need another computer.

[Trebuchet]

My vision of the future is where computers are bought like Cell phones. You get a free OS that runs perfect on the hardware, and thehardware is significantly reduced in price, but it is pretty gimped without a subscription to a CNR-esque service.

The days when every kid goes to high school with their new $150 laptop with 3 gigs of ram, great graphics, and so forth that their parents bought them for christmas are nigh. Oh, but that laptop came with a contract/required subscription to Microsoft's program installation service for the next 5 years. At which point you'll need another computer.That's as probable a model for future PCs as any I've ever seen. Maybe operating systems will become just like cell phone contracts - Sign up for 2 years at $50/month; sign up for 5 years for only $40/month and we'll throw in the PC.

[Adamant1988]

That's as probable a model for future PCs as any I've ever seen. Maybe operating systems will become just like cell phone contracts - Sign up for 2 years at $50/month; sign up for 5 years for only $40/month and we'll throw in the PC.

Precisely, and even under those conditions "Free" software can be extremely profitable. I figure when you go to order a PC online, you'll end up making an "OS-Contract" that drastically reduces the price of your PC to the point where you can pay for it with pocket cash, and then you're stuck with the subscription service (and it's limitation) for the next 5 years.

It's not secret that cell phone service providers make good money like that...

[Trebuchet]

Precisely, and even under those conditions "Free" software can be extremely profitable. I figure when you go to order a PC online, you'll end up making an "OS-Contract" that drastically reduces the price of your PC to the point where you can pay for it with pocket cash, and then you're stuck with the subscription service (and it's limitation) for the next 5 years.

It's not secret that cell phone service providers make good money like that...Hey, if it automatically got me a shiny new state-of-the-art PC every five years I'd be perfectly happy to do it like that. For me, coming up with $1000+ cash for a new PC every few years is a lot more difficult than springing for a constant $40 a month. Note that this is a business model that would allow even free Linux distros to profit from computers because they wouldn't be selling the OS; they'd be leasing the hardware it's preinstalled on.

Nothing says the current business model, with PC users choosing between Mac, Microsoft, and alternative OS's installed on machines built by Dell, HP, Apple, etc., is going to remain in place forever. We already have service-based cell phones, how long before we see service-based computers?

One final note: Bill Gates didn't become the richest man in human history by being stupid. If Linux is truly the OS wave of the future, don't you think he's smart enough to realize that and adjust accordingly?

[Adamant1988]

I think the first thing that will happen will be a HUGE PR change for Microsoft, they're going to be wanting people to look at them and say "Oh, that was greatof them to release this software" not "I wonder what that company is up to now".

It's like the new Motorola razr phones. EVERY kid in my school has one (except for me) but they all came with extended contracts and such I'm sure. I think that's the business model we'll see for linux computers. You'll probably get an internet connection subscription every time you buy, wouldn't shock me.

[marx2k]

I think the first thing that will happen will be a HUGE PR change for Microsoft, they're going to be wanting people to look at them and say "Oh, that was greatof them to release this software" not "I wonder what that company is up to now".

It's like the new Motorola razr phones. EVERY kid in my school has one (except for me) but they all came with extended contracts and such I'm sure. I think that's the business model we'll see for linux computers. You'll probably get an internet connection subscription every time you buy, wouldn't shock me.

There's something like that going on with hardware/software sales right now. Take, for instance, buying a new computer. A lot of those computers will have a 'free trial' of some nationwide ISP (think included AOL trial offers when you first turn on your computer -- think about the AOL Connection doohickeys when you first start Windows 98)

You also get this kind of bundleware with USB drives nowadays. Free virus scanners, free this, free that...

[presbp]

I am kind of afraid of the way that PC technology and the way they will work will advance while on the other hand I see it as very cool. For some reason I don't really like the idea of paying a subscription for your hardware. What if one month you can't pay your subscription bill and you need your computer to do your work? Then you get fired because you don't have your work done.

[Adamant1988]

I am kind of afraid of the way that PC technology and the way they will work will advance while on the other hand I see it as very cool. For some reason I don't really like the idea of paying a subscription for your hardware. What if one month you can't pay your subscription bill and you need your computer to do your work? Then you get fired because you don't have your work done.

Well, I'm sure "work" would be happy to supply you with a computer to do the required work on.

There's something like that going on with hardware/software sales right now. Take, for instance, buying a new computer. A lot of those computers will have a 'free trial' of some nationwide ISP (think included AOL trial offers when you first turn on your computer -- think about the AOL Connection doohickeys when you first start Windows 9

You also get this kind of bundleware with USB drives nowadays. Free virus scanners, free this, free that...

Oh yeah, my laptop was a great price for the hardware I actually got with it, no doubt reduced by the rediculous amounts of crap that came pre-installed on it. But I'm thinking you go to Wal-mart and you buy a computer, you might spend.. oh let's say.. $150 on this BRAND NEW HIGH END MACHINE. That's a check, not a credit card death sentance. But along with that you sign some forms that say you're subscribing to "Operating Service" (or some such) and you pay $60 a month or so to be allowed to download new software, access the net and so forth. I expect we'll essentially be running "psuedo-thinclient" machines before too awful long.