How long will Ubuntu survive?

[DutchLau]

First off I'd like to say that I love Ubuntu. It has made my life so much easier and I finally was able to get rid of winblows once and for good.

I have read a little bit about the history of Ubuntu and how it got its sponsorship, but how long will Ubuntu last into the future? :neutral: Will it survive for a number of years? Or will the funding just stop sometime soon? :? I really hope that it will continue making this great flavor of Linux because I wouldn't be able to stand going back to mandriva, suse or knoppix after Ubuntu. How long do people think Ubuntu will last into the future, if anyone has given it thought. I hope it will last for a long time to come, but realistically speaking, all good things will eventually come to an end :-| In my eyes, what makes Ubuntu so strong is its vast community or very intelligent Linuxers that are willing to help others get at ease with this new OS.

So my question is, how long (realistically speaking) does everyone thing Ubuntu will last? I hope it will last forever, but that's just me..

DutchLau

[panickedthumb]

That's an impossible question to answer. I'd like to think it'd last forever, but that may not be feasible.

[DutchLau]

@ Panicked thumb I know it's impossible to predict and I also wish it would last forever.

I'm always scared that good things come to an end. Eventually (soon probably also) the Ubuntu Guide will, so I download it every other week so I have a copy of it, just in case it gets DDoSed or that it gets taken off the net. (Eventually the Guide will, it is infringing so many patents blah blah because of codecs and stuff)

It is sad to think about, our "Ubuntuing" lives will come to an end sometime (unless I become a super hax0r and take over the development process which I highly highly highly - a few thousand highlys later - doubt)

What do others think?

[23meg]

since it has a very large and growing user base that's very much connected to it (which a success for any young distro), i reckon even if sponsorship stops at some point, volunteer efforts will keep Ubuntu alive till the nuclear war / alien attack / third world war / meteor hit / solar supernova / Earth energy depletion / Pax Americana / apocalypse, which is, "realistically speaking", 75 to 100 years ahead, so yes, i estimate that Ubuntu will survive for 75-100 years.

[DutchLau]

@ 23Meg, in about 75-100 years I'll open a thread again in the Ubuntu Forums (if I'm not vaporized by a Nuclear Bomb/Meteorite/Alien) and we'll see if your prediction held true.

I sure hope Ubuntu lasts for another 100+ years (Then when I'm old and gone, I won't have to worry about the evil wintel emipre anymore!)

[SamH]

I think we should have a good long ride.

Slackware, for instance, is still in many ways a "one man shop". Yes, I know there are lots of people working on it, Patrick Volkerding is still the main man there. A few months ago he got VERY sick. Thankfully, he has fully recovered, but the Slackware community was very concerned about the distro's future.

From my limited experience, about one month now, it seems there are many core developers, and an organization behind Ubuntu. I think we are better covered for continuity than distros like Slackware and MEPIS that depend too much on one person.

Well, that's my two cents worth.

[23meg]

@ 23Meg, in about 50 - 75 years I'll open a thread again in the Ubuntu Forums (if I'm not vaporized by a Nuclear Bomb/Meteorite/Alien) and we'll see if your prediction held true.

I sure hope Ubuntu lasts for another 75+ years (Then when I'm old and gone, I won't have to worry about the evil wintel emipre anymore!)


alright, fine with me. but since i won't live that long, i'll give my login/pass to some younger friends and they'll be able to respond in my name. and don't worry, there'll be no wintel empire by then. actually, there won't be any corporations, empires, etc; everything will be scattered and decentralized to unimaginable extent.

(btw, look carefully, it's not 50-75, it's 75-100 ;))

on a more "serious" note, i agree with SamH about the one man show vs. organization point. an advantage of distributed development: even if the current form of commercial organization shatters, another can form from its pieces. example: netscape --> firefox.

that said, i'd like to see Ubuntu's development get more distributed, which is already the direction it's heading it seems. perhaps as widely distributed as Debian, and clearly laid out policies should be set for Debian <--> Ubuntu compatibility by both sides.

[KiwiNZ]

Other than Slackware , Redhat and Debian the average life span of distributions is fairly short.
While I hope that Ubuntu will be here for the long haul reality is that it may not be.
The Linux market is volitile and evolving , and that type of enviroment is by its nature insecure.
There will be casualties along the way as Linux acceptance grows , the trick is for the user community is to show as much support as possible . One positive thing users can do is dont just grumble about bugs etc , log them so they get fixed.

Bottom line I hope Ubuntu is still here in 2010 .

[DutchLau]

(btw, look carefully, it's not 50-75, it's 75-100 ;))

Tricksy tricksy are we? :razz:

http://www.netumentary.com/MT/archives/gollum.jpg

(Anyways, I never said anything about 50-75 years in the first place ;-) )

[23meg]

Tricksy tricksy are we? :razz:

yep, things change, it's in their nature :-\"

[poofyhairguy]

It will last as long as the community wants it too. If the community buys support, or donates to offset the cost of making Ubuntu, then it will stick around for a while. If this doesn't happen, then Ubuntu will probably be given to the community, and then it will last as long as the community wants it too.

[DutchLau]

I like your answer hairguy, and I definately agree with it. As soon as I start making some hard cash I will definately donate some of it to the Ubuntu development.

By the way, what are the rumors I've heard about some wealthy millionare (worth $500,000,000+) sponsoring Canonical? Are they true?

[bored2k]

I like your answer hairguy, and I definately agree with it. As soon as I start making some hard cash I will definately donate some of it to the Ubuntu development.

By the way, what are the rumors I've heard about some wealthy millionare (worth $500,000,000+) sponsoring Canonical? Are they true?
Mark Shuttleworth is the guy behind Ubuntu. He's rich enough to have his vacations on space wich he did -2002- . So yes I guess he's a gazillionaire.

http://linux.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/10/25/1634232&tid=163&tid=160&tid=146&tid=11

[JimmyJazz]

I'm sure if we all donate alittle money (like what you might pay for a bloated windows package) it'll last much longer.

http://www.ubuntulinux.org/donations/document_view

[panickedthumb]

"By the way, what are the rumors I've heard about some wealthy millionare (worth $500,000,000+) sponsoring Canonical? Are they true?"

Yes they are! Mark Shuttleworth. The first South African to pay to go into space. He founded the Thawte Corporation and made a bunch of money when he sold it, that's one source of his wealth. He is the SABDFL (Self-Appointed Benevolent Dictator For Life) for the Ubuntu project, since he's throwing a LOT of money at it. If you've gotten shipit cds, he paid for them to be sent to you.

He's a nice guy ;)

[Sam]

"By the way, what are the rumors I've heard about some wealthy millionare (worth $500,000,000+) sponsoring Canonical? Are they true?"

Yes they are! Mark Shuttleworth. The first South African to pay to go into space. He founded the Thawte Corporation and made a bunch of money when he sold it, that's one source of his wealth. He is the SABDFL (Self-Appointed Benevolent Dictator For Life) for the Ubuntu project, since he's throwing a LOT of money at it. If you've gotten shipit cds, he paid for them to be sent to you.

He's a nice guy ;)
Yep you're right...

Mark Shuttleworth, if you read this, I would like to thank you A LOT for all you do for the linux community !!

[poofyhairguy]

Mark doesn't mind if he doesn't make money on Ubuntu. It has a better chance than most corporated backed Linuxs do.

[Xian]

There are many active and good things going on that most of us are not even up to speed on. The posted schedule for the recent UDU in the wiki illustrates this plainly. I think we have only yet begun to see what this distribution is capable of, both on the desktop and as a viable business venture.