Ubuntu's Tipping Point (When Oh When) ?

[ddastoor]

[Light Hearted Disclaimer : ) : Im treading on a touchy topic and I know that this post would be open to violent points of view on both sides]
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As much as we would all like to see Ubuntu take over the world, a question that bugs me (I'm sure it's old hat in the linux world) is:

When will Ubuntu reach it's Tipping Point (http://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=2&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FThe_Tip ping_Point_(book)&ei=OAy0Sb39LJLnkAW11eXhBg&usg=AFQjCNFTQWG4xsxoz2rayfg7pEl9tJ5l7A&sig2=W2UpqIBBW6QR15PZlJscaQ) or in other words when will it become an uncrushable epidemic that will remain mainstream??

As much we dislike MS's business policies, Windows owns 88% of the Desktop OS world because (please throw in your ideas, corrections)

1) DOS to Windows was a revolutionary jump.
2) Corporates Use Windows
For example, if an average corporate employee had a presentation the next day at work that would make or break his/her promotion, more likely than not, he/she would use MS Powerpoint and not Open Office ? Well, why ? Because of fear... the similar kind of apprehension and fear that snowballs a down-market into a full fledged recession, a fear that says "i won't invest because those 10 other banks don't want to lend", or the same kind of fear that says " what if my ppt breaks on the conference room machine that has MS powerpoint.... Im sure you get my gist??

3) Very few, if any (please correct me here if im wrong on facts), printers/mice and other computer peripherils can be bought off the shelf with linux driver in them ?

4) Don't beat me up on this, but I swear to God, my grandmother once or twice, on her own sent out her own emails !!!

5) "One company - One Focus - One Vision"
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(It goes without saying that Mark Shuttleworth is keenly aware of this)
The very definition of Open Source means that many different programmers with different ideologies write programs.
Example: MS has one single networking wizard for ALL kinds of networked connections, where as I had to do some scouting around to get pppoe work.


In short, as you would all agree, the simplicity, beauty and technical genius of Linux is well known of course, but who will provide, cater to, and fuel the overwhelming business strategies that MS (I agree many of them not in good taste) used to catch the Desktop world by the bal** ??

All power to the Linux world at large and MS Ubuntu : ) (as in Mark Shuttleworth Ubuntu) ??

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[dragos240]

never

[ArtF10]

...when will it become an uncrushable epidemic that will remain mainstream??....

never

[odda]

honestly i think having an alternate is a healthy thing, be it os x, ubuntu or microsoft as the alternate, it gives diversity, if we were all the same we would die of boredem, straight up

[simtaalo]

3) Very few, if any (please correct me here if im wrong on facts), printers/mice and other computer peripherils can be bought off the shelf with linux driver in them ?

they don't have the linux driver with them, but linux has the drivers for most of them as part of the system

[Naiki Muliaina]

if we were all the same we would die of boredem, straight up

This man speaks my mind ^^

[blastus]

When will Ubuntu reach it's Tipping Point or in other words when will it become an uncrushable epidemic that will remain mainstream??

IMO Ubuntu has already reached critical mass. There's no such thing as an uncrushable epidemic; great empires have risen and fallen over time.

[PhoHammer]

IMO Ubuntu has already reached critical mass. There's no such thing as an uncrushable epidemic; great empires have risen and fallen over time.

Yes, MS would have appeared as "uncrushable" with 98 through XP, but
look what Vista did (and I don't hate Vista). Empires can be weakened
and perhaps fall eventually...

As I get more and more into GNU/Linux, I care less about how big
distros can get, as long as they're high quality (like ubuntu) and
they're there for me to download. I would rather spend my time
learning more about GNU/Linux than learning when it will take over
the world.

It's not always a popularity contest.

[wolfen69]

can you say "recurring discussion"?

[Skripka]

As I get more and more into GNU/Linux, I care less about how big
distros can get, as long as they're high quality (like ubuntu) and
they're there for me to download.

Ubuntu should learn a great deal from this statement, regarding bloat, and actually fixing bugs instead of letting them gather dust in the name of 6 month deadlines.

[MikeTheC]

Of all the distros, I think Ubuntu has the best shot at having a tipping point, simply because Mark is positioned to facilitate it happening and he seems to believe it is possible to be done with appropriate leadership of F/OSS. Whether Mark is the right man, of course, remains to be seen.

The biggest thing which could stop any Linux distro from bringing about a tipping point is, paradoxically, the whole "Cathedral vs. The Bazaar" phenomena itself. Generally, trying to steer or guide Linux is like trying to herd cats. It's almost like a Government operation, and by that I mean you have lots of people out there who just want whatever it is they want, and really don't care about market success or anything else which intrinsically is required for Linux to become the dominant platform.

Conversely, Linux as an overall platform stands a chance of establishing a beachhead and then a tipping point simply because of the sheer number of people around the world who could adopt it. (Asia, India, continent of Africa, I'm looking at you.) If that comes about, then Linux will become the dominant platform and could, quite conceivably, dry up the market for any other desktop OS simply because, with a sufficient user base and a sufficient number of available apps for it, there wouldn't really be much need for commercial OS alternatives.

[HavocXphere]

I don't think we'll ever have another single-OS dominated period ever again. MS will lose share and that share will be split over X other operating systems.

I'd like linux to gain more share so that there is more software available for it. e.g. off the shelf games. But imho it doesn't need to snowball. It just needs to be viable, not all-dominating. I wouldn't complain if it does snowball though.;)

The Android camp seems to be preparing for a big push too.

[darrelljon]

I'd say Ubuntu is already the most used Linux distro.

[ddastoor]

IMO Ubuntu has already reached critical mass. There's no such thing as an uncrushable epidemic; great empires have risen and fallen over time.


I'm going to use my words very critically..
Your "critical mass" and my "unstoppable epidemic" are in a similar vein in terms of making it a sustainable and mainstream OS.

Also, it becomes a "great empire" once it reaches "critical mass" and beyond. Of course, events in history are cyclic, but I'm trying to stress the "rise of UBUNTU", not fall.


Definitions:
1) "critical mass" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critical_mass_(sociodynamics))
2) google "define:critical mass"


- Dinshaw

[ddastoor]

Requesting all to please try to get the spirit of what I'm saying...

1) Quoted by odda:
honestly i think having an alternate is a healthy thing, be it os x, ubuntu or microsoft as the alternate, it gives diversity, if we were all the same we would die of boredem, straight up

2) Quoted by PhoHammer
It's not always a popularity contest.

3) Quoted by MikeTheC
a) It's almost like a Government operation
b) Linux as an overall platform stands a chance of establishing a beachhead and then a tipping point simply because of the sheer number of people around the world who could adopt it.

4) I don't think we'll ever have another single-OS dominated period ever again
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With referrence to the above posts, a few thoughts:
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In a sence it is a "popularity contest", and in Free-Capitilist-Market-World jargon, this would be termed competition. Competition for what? For acheiving success. What kind of success? A success of being "popular".

Google defines "popular" (google "define: popular") as:
"regarded with great favor, approval, or affection especially by the general public"

Now, as you would agree, "success" has different defining parameters for different products/people/spheres in life.

Why does Linux/Unix rule in the Server Market? Simple. Because it's the best. It's in "textbook" Computer Science terms, an almost perfect piece of software ever written. The "Customer-Focus" is on a superior Kernel, Power, Speed, Reliability and all that good stuff AND the "Customer-Focus" is met. Simple. Are it's customers happy? Tremenduously.

Is the iPod a success? Yes. Is it popular? Yes. Why is it popular? Because, it's Customer Focus is met. A neat idea. Affordable, enough capacity, tie up with record companies,
iTunes, etc, extendible. THe whole cult thing. It's as MikeTheC quoted above: "It's almost like a Government operation"

As you see, it's almost never an excellent product out there alone. (as in not just the iPod, but the whole Cult
thing about iPod, iTunes, the record companies, etc.)

The same reasons why Google is a success, etc., Customer-Focus is dead-on, great.

My point is: The defining parameters of "success" for the Linux Desktop Market (and I repeat, Desktop, NOT server) are not just a beautiful kernel with speed, stablilty, etc. They are (and here's the whole spirit of my post) all these other things like ease of use in terms of drivers, interoperbility, vendor support, etc. The customer-focus is varied.

What I'm saying is not profound or new, and obviously,
Mark S. and the other Linux Desktop entrepreneurs are driven by these same factors to meet ALL the aspects of this customer focus, or else, why would Ubuntu Jaunty 9 focus on nifty GUI notifications (among other stuff), why would the new KDE 4 look so slick? Why would there be "hot" device plug-in support? Why would www.kde-look.org

(www.kde-look.org) and www.gnome-look.org be doing so well?

Arn't all these things what Microsoft anyway did long ago to fuel it's own "epidemic"?, the building stones to making it an "empire" in the first place?

In conclusion, of course there will be many OSs out there, and of course Linux may not dominate, but I would love to know (I'm ignorant here, please help me out) that Cannonical has a Business Think-Tank too that looks at vendor peripheriral support, company tie up, vendor driver writing, etc.

Mark S., seems to be, at last the Conductor/Manager of the Linux Desktop Orchestra, a manager who has technical prowess and (ok, this will hurt) like Bill Gates, has Business Vision to fuel the
"epidemic" to establish the "empire" in the first place, let alone sustain it.

- Dinshaw

[Skripka]

With referrence to the above posts, a few thoughts:
---------------------------------------------------
In a sence it is a "popularity contest", and in Free-Capitilist-Market-World jargon, this would be termed competition. Competition for what? For acheiving success. What kind of success? A success of being "popular".

Google defines "popular" (google "define: popular") as:



Drunk driving is popular amongst teens in the US. Is "popularity" a good thing?


Most people don't WANT to know more about their computer than any other appliance they buy. As such they have no business using a linux system.

PS-Popularity is directly proportional to bloat it has been determined.

PPS-Who gives a sh*t what OS someone uses, so long as it does what they want?

[cmat]

Instead of trying to fight Windows we should be trying to get hardware vendors to support Ubuntu. That being said MS will try every dirty trick in the book to crush us out of the PC market. We are the only really alternative in the beige-box PC market. That is, unless Apple decides to release for PC.

[ddastoor]

Yes, obviously you are right, and obviously I'm not talking of "popular" things that are outright bad and rotton.

We dislike Windows because:
1) MS uses unfair and monopolistic business practices (the way it killed Netscape, just to site one example).
2) MS Developers think they are "Gods" and are arrogant to the core !!!
3) MS wrongly uses their "extend and embrace" policy.
4) MS code is closed Source.
5) MS is sometimes slow and clunky.

However, I would like to give credit where it's due.

If you hate MS so much in that you can't find anything good with it, then yes I have no more to say.

Everyone's missing the point of my post. No one is debating the quality of the OS per se. Linux wins !!! I love Linux too. No doubt.


I'm talking of the non-technical business as part of being their multi-thronged approach to making it mainstream. If their OS was that bad, etc., most of the corporate world would not use Windows as their desktop for so long and pay thru their noses for it.

Hosnestly, I don't know what Mark S. and Cannonical's real motives are, but they sure seem to me to be to make Ubuntu as a serious alternative to Windows. To me, this sure seems to be one of their goals.

Just answer one single question: Amongst all the Linux distros, why is Ubuntu the most popular at the moment (on www.distrowatch.org)? Even though they all build off the same kernel?

[ddastoor]

posted by cmat
Instead of trying to fight Windows we should be trying to get hardware vendors to support Ubuntu.


Thank you cmat !!! Finally someone is seeing what I'm saying...

[Flyingjester]

Drunk driving is popular amongst teens in the US. Is "popularity" a good thing?
just want a fact check on that one... i'm not sure that drunk driving is as "popular" as you think it is.

[cmat]

There is a difference between common and popular.

[will1911a1]

Just answer one single question: Amongst all the Linux distros, why is Ubuntu the most popular at the moment (on www.distrowatch.org)? Even though they all build off the same kernel?

Because more Ubuntu users happen to visit Distrowatch than users of other distros?

[sydbat]

The OP has a point, but is (sort of) presenting his theories from a flawed hypothesis.

The reason Microsoft dominates the PC marketplace is because of contracts signed by vendors who supply hardware and software. These vendors are "locked in" to the Microsoft business model because they see real ROI.

True, most of the people who program are geeky enough to have side projects to provide apps, drivers, etc to the Open Source community. However, the only ROI for them is the satisfaction that they made something for everyone to use. If it were not for their "day jobs", they likely would not have the motivation to program for free. This could change if they were (truly) financially supported by the community.

And the hardware vendors like having substantial cash flow...something Microsoft can virtually guarantee because of the lock in.

This may change as people find they cannot justify spending hundreds or thousands of $$ every 2 or 3 years just to 'keep up' with the next Microsoft OS and collateral 'suites', hardware to support it, etc. These same people will begin to wonder why their relatively new computer is inadequate to run the latest-and-greatest MS offering. As a result, Open Source and free (or very inexpensive) OS's, apps, etc will grow.

All this is nice philosophizing...at least to an extent. People are slow to change. When they do change, it is often radical and happens on a societal level (think the 1960's as one example). Nothing will really change until people finally become fed up with corporate greed. There is nothing wrong with capitalism, but unchecked capitalism is a disaster waiting to happen (as is evident in the last few months). [/rant]

[ddastoor]

thanks sydbat,
yes i agree there too : )
the power of incentives and salaries + hikes, exactly... being in a company of "elite programmers" and all that...
im assuming u read post number 15 of mine....

in my enthuasim for ubuntu to expand, i was trying to say just that, that vendor support and business tie-ups is crucial, etc... and we hope this will happen..